About Copper Price--20181229
The spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce said on the 27th that the Sino-US economic and trade team has always maintained close communication, and the two sides have already made specific arrangements for face-to-face consultations in January.
As the New Year approaches, the spot market is weakening, and copper prices are expected to be weakly adjusted next week. This week, the futures price fell first and then rose. Due to poor terminal consumption and the downward adjustment of the global economic growth rate, the market raised concerns about macroeconomic concerns. The stock market and oil prices fell, causing copper prices to fall continuously. Shanghai copper once fell below the support line of 48,000 yuan/ton and reached a minimum of 47,470 yuan / ton. Later, after the Christmas, the global stock market and oil prices rose. The copper price began to rebound and returned to the upper level of 48,000 yuan / ton.
Although the price has risen slightly this week, the market sentiment has eased slightly, but the terminal consumption is weak, and the global economic growth rate is lowered. The market still has macroeconomic concerns.
Copper prices are expected to fall slightly next week, and the price of LME copper will remain in the range of 5,900-6,100 USD/ton. The main strength of Shanghai copper will remain in the range of 47,500-48,500 yuan/ton.
About Copper Price--20181116
On November 15th, Chile’s state-owned copper industry, the Chilean Copper Council, lowered its copper price estimate by $0.03 this year to $2.97 per pound, the second time in six months.
The Copper Board also lowered its price forecast for 2019, down from $3.10 per pound expected in July to $3.05, saying that demand for copper will continue to be sluggish due to trade tensions between China and the United States.
The committee expects Chile's copper production this year to be 5.76 million tons, an increase of 4.7% over last year, due to the long-term strike in 2017 to suppress production. It further expects Chile's copper production to increase by 3.1% and 1.4% in 2019 and 2020, respectively.
Since 2018, the trend of copper prices and the trend of 2017 can be described as two days. The spot copper price has dropped by about 12% compared with the beginning of the year. The Syrian crisis, the Fed’s interest rate hike, the Iranian nuclear issue, the Saudi reporter’s incident, the Sino-US trade dispute, the global stock market plunging and other macro-surfaces constantly updated bad news, and repeatedly tempted the copper market investors’ enthusiasm. The fundamentals are also weak. The national grid construction has shown signs of slowing for the first time in the past five years. The air-conditioning industry has lowered its sales expectations. Both the growth rate of automobile sales and the completion of real estate have declined. This has created resistance to copper prices.
About Copper Price--20181009
Global copper concentrate and electrolytic copper production are steadily increasing
According to the latest data, from January to June this year, the global copper concentrate production was 10.023 million tons, an increase of 4.3% over the same period in 2017. The global production of electrolytic copper was 11.711 million tons, an increase of 1.8% over the same period last year. Statistics show that since 2014, the global copper supply and demand gap is gradually narrowing. In the first half of 2018, the global copper supply and demand gap was only 51,000 tons, and the annual gap is estimated to be less than 100,000 tons. This is a significant improvement over the supply and demand gap of more than 200,000 tons in previous years.
The downstream demand kinetic energy is temporarily insufficient
On the macro level, the peak period of investment in China's power grid construction has passed. Although the total amount of investment in power infrastructure construction has rebounded from the previous year, the cumulative year-on-year total is negative, and the data released in August 2018 is -13.3%. In addition, the growth rate of China's fixed asset investment is also declining month by month. The completion of fixed assets investment announced in August 2018 was 5.3% year-on-year, down 2.5% from the same period of last year and down 0.2% from the previous month.
In the micro-industry, from March to August 2018, downstream copper production was 9.13 million tons, down 18% from the same period last year. It can be seen that the downstream demand for copper is not very optimistic.
About Copper Price--20180920
Warehouse stocks at the London Metal Exchange rose to 388,000 tons in March 2018, a huge increase considering that stocks were only slightly above 180,000 tons at the end of last year. The increase in inventories led to a weaker copper market and prevented copper prices from hitting new highs in early June. At that time, the market expected that Escondida would strike, and the employers and employees reached an agreement to avoid the strike, but it was driven by the dollar's strength and the US-China protectionism wave after the copper price broke through the technical support. At the same time, the lower price of copper may have encouraged buying in the spot market, as LME warehouse inventories have fallen sharply over the past few months.
As of September 17, LME copper stocks were 221,000 tons, 42.8% lower than the March high. Copper stocks are currently at their lowest level in 2018, and many other non-ferrous metals stocks traded on the London Metal Exchange have also declined in the past few weeks.
The wave of trade disputes and protectionism has swept the world in the past few months, making copper and many other commodities a focus of attention, as tariffs and subsidies often interfere with market supply and demand fundamentals. In the free market, goods flow from the most efficient producers to consumers who are willing to pay the highest prices. However, tariffs and subsidies distort these prices and the flow of global raw materials. Therefore, since the United States first imposed a $50 billion tariff on China this summer and China has taken corresponding measures, trade in copper and other raw materials markets has outperformed other fundamental factors. At the same time, China has devalued the renminbi to make its commodities more competitive in the global market, which could lead to trade and currency wars. The price of copper may become unstable, and trade problems may put pressure on copper, but on the issue of new tariffs on Tuesday, when copper prices rose, copper prices were counterproductive. Copper seems to be paying attention to LME stocks rather than escalating trade disputes.
About Copper Price--201807
The escalating trade friction between China and the United States has led to a significant reduction in market risk appetite, affecting markets such as commodities, stocks and foreign exchange. As a highly global commodity market, the non-ferrous metal market is greatly affected by macro and trade frictions. The decline was obvious from mid-June to July.
From the perspective of tariff impact, the first is to directly impose tariffs on imported metal products, which will directly affect the export demand of non-ferrous metal products. Second, the taxation on imported terminal products will reduce the domestic demand for domestic metals, such as taxation scope. Expanded to home appliances and so on. Direct tariffs on imported metal products are not expected to have a significant impact on China, and may have a greater impact on the downstream industries in the United States, but indirect impacts are more difficult to predict.
On July 11, the United States announced the introduction of a tariff list of 200 billion US dollars, or a trigger for the large-scale diving of colored groups, including home appliances and machinery. At present, the market is worried that the escalation of trade friction will affect global demand expectations. In particular, the reduction of terminal exports of indirect metal use will reduce the demand for non-ferrous metals, and thus the price of non-ferrous metals will fall.
About Copper Price--20180606
London’s base metals generally closed higher on Tuesday. The London copper closed up 1.8%, breaking through the 7,000-dollar mark, at 7,099 US dollars/ton, and hit a high of 7,167.75 US dollars since February.
BHP Billiton 's copper mining union in Chile said on Friday that it has launched the latest round of labor negotiations on the contract proposal, which includes a bonus of approximately $34,000 for each worker. This causes the market to worry about whether it will lead to a 44-day strike just as the negotiated talks broke down last year. As a result, the price of copper has risen sharply.
About Copper Price--20180326
On Monday (March 26), copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell to $6,632 per ton, which is more than 10% lower than the three-year high in December last year. This is also the first time since the election of Trump in late 2016 that the price of copper fell below the 200-day moving average.
The recent increase in copper inventories put pressure on copper prices, and overnight copper fell by $25.5 to a three-and-a-half-month low. LME copper stocks rose by 35,000 tons to 352,750 tons on Monday, an increase of 11.01% over the previous trading day; COMEX copper Monday stock increased by 909 short tons to 232,547 short tons; last Friday, copper stocks in the previous period increased by 10441 tons to 307,435 tons. Eight weeks rose to a high of nearly a year.
The trade negotiations between China and the United States eased the worries of the market in the trade war. The risk aversion in the market cooled, and the US dollar index continued to decline overnight. It once fell below the 89 mark and restrained the copper price from falling further. China imported 229,600 tons of refined copper in February, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%. Concerns over the oversupply of copper oversupply eased. Shanghai copper continued to rise in the morning and spot copper prices rose.
In the case of copper mines, the Chilean Los Pelambres copper miner owned by Antofagasta has reached a labor contract with the employer to lift the strike risk.
About Copper Price--20180302
If the dollar is higher, the copper price maybe decline.
Outside the disk, open the London copper opened at 6930 US dollars / ton, after opening bronze briefly low then all the way up, high to 6965 US dollars / ton. At 14:31, London Copper reported 6955 US dollars / ton, London Copper temporarily supported.
As of 2rd, March, the dollar strengthened to a six-week high, increasing the cost of other metals holders to buy metal, which could drag down metal prices. At present, copper in Shanghai has been running below the moving average, the dollar is concerned about the short term trend, if the dollar continued to rise, the copper price is still expected to decline.